• people are on the whole insane, individually and collectively
  • in the sense that the way they act and what they believe is not reflective of an underlying reality
• people are unable to express their own preferences, and often hold contradictory preferences without noticing
  • in economics there is the idea of ‘revealed preferences’ but seldom is the consitency of preferences examined
  • both stated and revealed preferences vary wildly depending on context
• because people are insane, the idea that they ‘respond to incentives’ is obviously wrong
  • people will ratioanlize their decisions in terms of what incentives they believe led to their decision, but rarely can people describe which factors will influence their decision in advance
  • often choices must be made among nearly identical options, and under these circumstances the decision however consequential is made essentially at random
• you have spooks in your brain

update (26.Aug.24): seems pareto came to the same conclusion in ‘general sociology’; people are motivated by ‘residues’ but rationalize through ‘derivations’